T-1 Day Now. | Short $FISI

Well folks, today’s session is the last before tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and boy is it shaping up to be quite the day for markets with the S&P having ended its 6-day winning streak with an over 1% loss yesterday – read on for more on that as well as your daily dose of market inspiration in this 207th Coachman’s Report!

Markets in Review

With volatility spiking 10% this week already, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq are marginally lower in the premarket to today’s session with all indices -15 to -30 bps at the time of writing. Moreover, with the S&P losing 1.3% yesterday, it seems as though the index is looking to get back within its price channel as traders wait for the real results of this earnings week, tomorrow’s FOMC meeting as well as Friday’s jobs report. Friday’s jobs report is forecasted to come in at 187,000 for the month of January – this will bring the unemployment rate to 3.6%.
Short: Financial Institutions, Inc. (FISI-NASDAQ) | Timeline: 1 day
Financial Institutions, Inc. (FISI), which operates as a holding company for the Five Star Bank, a chartered bank that provides banking and financial services to individuals, municipalities, and businesses in New York, reported a subpar earnings report yesterday after the market closed. Despite meeting revenue expectations, earnings were missed by 3.77%, as net income came in at $12.1 million, compared to $19.6 million in 2021. (Full Story)
 
Turning to the chart, FISI has been oscillating within a descending triangle over the last 6 months, and a decisive period lies ahead. That said, as the most recent day candle features a long upper wick, high selling pressure is apparent at these levels, and as a result, traders should expect a rejection.
Zooming Out…
 
Emergency Over
 
On Monday President Biden told Congress that he plans to put an end to the two national emergencies instituted to combat Covid on May 11. Through the national emergencies first declared under President Trump, many Americans were able to access free tests, vaccines, and other Covid treatments, post emergency, access to these services will be billed to government facilitated, and insurance-based health plans.
 
This announcement comes at a time when many are up in arms over Moderna and Pfizer’s planned price increases to MRNA-based shots. While currently available for $26 USD, up from roughly $15 USD, the new pricing scheme for the shots would have a single dose cost between $110USD, and $130 USD.
 
Chinese Chip Complaints
 
Over the past 6 years, the United States has attempted to stifle advanced Chinese industries through a variety of import and export controls. Recent reports have revealed that these measures will expand past US shores to include Dutch and Japanese manufacturers. This all while the US government is considering cutting off Huawei from all American suppliers- a strengthening of a prior rule which required government approval for export.
 
This has led to the Chinese foreign minister appealing to the Dutch, in hopes that they will “jointly safeguard the stability of international industrial and supply chains”. These appeals were followed by statements claiming that the US is abusing export controls and that such measures could lead to the destabilization of global supply chains.
Making Headlines…
 
It’s been a very bad month for Indian billionaires — four of the richest Indians have collectively lost about $45 billion in 2023
  • Indian billionaires are leading losses on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index so far this year, mainly due to a massive selloff in Adani Group’s listed businesses and the broader Indian market. (Full Story)
 
Global Inflation Fight Far From Over, IMF Chief Economist Says
  • Inflation remains a big challenge for policymakers worldwide, a top International Monetary Fund official said after the lender raised its global economic growth outlook for the first time in a year. (Full Story)
 
After tank pledges, Ukraine seeks Western fighter jets
  • Ukraine is pushing its Western allies to provide it with fighter jets, a week after winning pledges of sophisticated modern tanks to help it beat back Russia’s invasion force after almost a year of fighting. (Full Story)
 
TD Strikes Deal With Canada Immigration Site as Newcomers Surge
  • Toronto-Dominion Bank struck a deal to provide financial content for the immigrant-geared CanadaVisa website, part of its bid to win a greater share of the new Canadians who are an increasingly important source of growth for the country’s big lenders. (Full Story)
Chart: S&P 500, 2023 vs 1929
“Learn the rules like a pro, so you can break them like an artist.”
Pablo Picasso